Monday, May 07, 2012

Phoenix-Area Home Prices Rise for Fourth Month

DQ News -- "Phoenix-area home sales dipped in March compared with a year earlier as buyers faced a dwindling supply of foreclosures and other sub-$100,000 properties on the market. With foreclosure resales at a nearly four-year low, the median sale price shot up 13.3% from March last year, marking the fourth consecutive month in which the median has risen year-over-year.

A total of 10,005 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow during March in the combined Maricopa-Pinal counties metro area. That was up 22.2 percent from the month before and down 2.7 percent from a year earlier.

The median price paid in March for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Phoenix region was $135,900, which is the highest for any month since June 2010, when the median was $139,900. March's median rose 6.2% from the month before and rose 13.3% from a year earlier. The median's year-over-year increase in March followed annual gains of 7.5% in December last year and 6.7% in both January and February of this year. March's median stood 48.5% below the all-time peak of $264,100 in June 2006, but it was 14.8% above the median’s post-peak trough of $118,347 in August 2011."

15 Comments:

At 5/07/2012 8:51 AM, Blogger Jon said...

Is there good data on how far the prices fell initially? When you are in the toilet coming up some is not particularly impressive. GDP in the US in 1936 shot up an amazing 14.1%, but that was still the middle of the Depression. Let's not forget that deregulated finance wrecked the economy in a major way. The dead cat is going to bounce.

 
At 5/07/2012 10:15 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

This is good news for Phoenix. Especially since their foreclosure pipeline is nearly empty, prices will likely rise further as the market works its way through the glut of homes on the market.

 
At 5/07/2012 10:23 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

This is starting to happen in the Seattle area too. Over the weekend I talked to a saleswoman at a new housing development near me, and she told me she's sold 10 houses in the past month, which is a very good pace. This is at a development that's only been under construction for about 2 months. I'm seeing a lot of this around me lately - houses being sold before they're even built.

This first article is very interesting:
Reader Question: Did I Just Step Into a Shark Tank?
Then some local stats:
King County home prices rise with fewer houses for sale
Home prices rise 10% in Snohomish County

 
At 5/07/2012 11:07 AM, Blogger Pulverized Concepts said...

With mortgage interest rates at an all-time low there's bound to be an increase in sales. How many of them are being made to people who sold at the top of the boom and are now getting back in near the bottom? That's got to be the case with a certain percentage of them.

 
At 5/07/2012 11:23 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

With mortgage interest rates at an all-time low there's bound to be an increase in sales. How many of them are being made to people who sold at the top of the boom and are now getting back in near the bottom? That's got to be the case with a certain percentage of them.

I largely suspect you are right.

I'm not sure, however, how much of an effect the low mortgage rates are having on the market, though, has they have been so low for so long.

 
At 5/07/2012 11:34 AM, Blogger Paul said...

"How many of them are being made to people who sold at the top of the boom and are now getting back in near the bottom?"

I did. I heard somewhere you should buy low and sell high.

 
At 5/07/2012 11:45 AM, Blogger bart said...

The big picture:


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/case_shiller_pay_v_rent1970on.png

 
At 5/07/2012 1:02 PM, Blogger Ed R said...

Real estate sales (and prices) always rise in the Spring -- every Spring, year after year after year. February is still winter, March begins the Spring. This is not news.

This "press release" only confirms what everyone already knows about the seasonality of real estate markets.

To its credit the press realease does point out the seasonality factor, although you will have to read closely to find it.

 
At 5/07/2012 1:05 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Ed-

Everything you said is spot on, but the article is talking about year-over-year gains. In other words, March 2012 is higher than March 2011. The seasonality factor is already taken into account.

What the article is saying is that December-March all were higher than the same months one year earlier.

 
At 5/07/2012 1:49 PM, Blogger bart said...

Phoenix Case Shiller:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/case_shiller_city01.png



Seattle Case Shiller:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/case_shiller_city10.png

 
At 5/07/2012 1:53 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Thanks for the charts, Bart. They really do a good job of showing the recent jump in prices.

 
At 5/07/2012 3:00 PM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

@ Jon

How about you just post all the major progrssive/liberal talking points at once so I don't have to read them in every one of your posts.

"Deregulation of finance" had nothing to do with wrecking the economy. Easy credit driven by social lending programs wrecked the economy.

 
At 5/07/2012 9:12 PM, Blogger Ed R said...

John Murphy:

Read closely: " sales were. . . up 22.2 percent from the month before and DOWN 2.7 percent from a year earlier."

 
At 5/08/2012 9:20 AM, Blogger bart said...

And a much fuller picture:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/case_shiller_phoenix.png

 
At 5/08/2012 12:50 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Ed-

That is correct, for the Maricopa-Pinal counties area.

The number Dr. Perry and I are discussing is in the paragraph above it discussing the Phoenix area. Specifically, the emphasis area.

Maricopa-Pinal is the metro area south of Phoenix.

 

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