Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Gov. Christie is Out and Romney Intrade Odds Surge

Intrade odds for Romney to be the 2012 Republican presidential nominee surged more than ten points today to 57.4% (see chart above), as he was apparently the main beneficiary of Gov. Chris Christie's announcement this afternoon that he would not run for president.  At 57.4% odds, Romney now leads second-place Rick Perry by a record-setting 38 points.

10 Comments:

At 10/04/2011 6:37 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Herman Cain is cheap, if conventional wisdom is behind the curve.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?searchQuery=herman+cain

 
At 10/04/2011 7:29 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

And that is Gov. Perry.

Just imagine if it were Mark Perry.

 
At 10/04/2011 7:48 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

They all look like Not Obama to me.

 
At 10/05/2011 8:19 AM, Blogger Michael Hoff said...

Feels like Jimmy Carter all over again, and the best the republicans can muster is George H.W. Bush.

To Methinks' point, yes, better. But not good.

 
At 10/05/2011 8:29 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

michael-

i had been feeling the same way until i really took a hard look at cain.

i like his tax plan and his variety of experience.

i think he may surprise folks.

this gallup poll is very interesting.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149924/Perry-Plummets-Cain-Surges-Positive-Intensity.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Politics

it shows cain with the highest net positive intensity by a landslide, but low name recognition.

the latter can be fixed more easily than the former.

perry blew up on the launchpad, and romney is like michael dukakis without the charisma and had the romneycare millstone around his neck.

cain has a real shot to be the responsible adult in this race (because he is) and seems to be the only one with any interesting ideas.

we need someone who understands how business works, not another career politician.

PS -if 9-9-9 ever passes, buy stock in every software integrator you can find (like SAP). the updates it will create will be a bonanza for them.

short the tax accountants an lawyers.

man would i love to put that trade on.

 
At 10/05/2011 12:51 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The GOP swoons each month for newest beau. Maybe Cain is next. Maybe Spiro Agnew will make a comeback.

Romney has the best shot, and has a business background--not on the operations side, but nevertheless. Cain has nice business background too.

Rick Perry's family business has been subsidized by US taxpayers. Since 1995, US taxpayers like me have given $35 billion to cotton farmers.

Yeah, that Perry is one rugged individualist--ever on the government dole. his whole life.

 
At 10/05/2011 2:48 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

bunny-

and the dems anointed who again?

and what was his relevant experience?

we wound up elected a human interest story with zero credentials and accomplishments.

he promised mutually contradictory things to everyone and has fallen on his face.

he's an embarrassment and a joke.

i'm with methinks.

anyone but obambi.

the interesting question is whether the dems will mutiny and give him a serious primary challenge.

 
At 10/05/2011 5:27 PM, Blogger Marko said...

Morganovich, I am finding the same thing. It seems the more I learn about Romney and Perry, the less I like them. The more I learn about Cain, the more I like him.

I think the major risk with Cain is that since he has never run for elected office that he might blow up or there might be something unpleasant dredged up from his past. I guess that could happen to anyone, but someone that has never held public office is a bit scary in a way.

Eisenhower turned out pretty well though, at least from a basic competence perspective. Cain is a lot more fiscally conservative than Ike, and that is all I care about now (as long as they are not activist about any other views they may have).

 
At 10/05/2011 11:19 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Methinks: "They all look like Not Obama to me."

*like*

 
At 10/05/2011 11:23 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Marko: "I guess that could happen to anyone, but someone that has never held public office is a bit scary in a way. "

Look at it this way: with someone who has never held public office, there's a chance they could be really good. You already know that someone who HAS held office, isn't.

 

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