Intrade Odds for Secretary of the Treasury
Timothy Geithner: 49%
Lawrence Summers: 45%
Laura Tyson: 18%
Paul Volcker: 10%
Warren Buffet: 5%
Paul Krugman: 3%
Link (go to Politics, then Pres. Appointments)
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Lawrence Summers: 45%
Laura Tyson: 18%
Paul Volcker: 10%
Warren Buffet: 5%
Paul Krugman: 3%
Link (go to Politics, then Pres. Appointments)
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
Previous Posts
- Cafe Hayek Blog Closes Comments for Two Weeks
- How Poor Are America's Poor?
- Thinking of Getting a Ph.D. in Economics?
- Taxpayer Rescue:Down Payment on Endless Bailout
- If You Tax Something, You Get Less Of It
- The Coming Europeanization of the U.S. Economy?
- Natural Gas Prices Fall 80% To a 6.5 Year Low
- Equality of Opportunity vs. Equality of Outcome
- Do We Really Really Need Farm Subsidies?
- Actual Fed Funds Rate is Now Below .25%
6 Comments:
How comes the sum is over 100%? mL
mL: There are 23 separate Intrade contracts for Secretary of the Treasury right now, and there is no reason that the sums have to add up to 100%. As the decision gets closer and trading volume increases, the sum might be closer to 100%.
When there are only two outcomes (like McCain and Obama for president), it would be more likely that the sum is 100% for the two contracts.
I don't have an Intrade account so I offer this potential arbitrage for free to those who do: if the collective bids on the whole pool add up to more than 100% short the whole pool. Whatever you collect in excess of 100% (less transaction costs) is guaranteed profit.
A word of caution: my advice is free and you get what you pay for.
Depression dead ahead, same failed policies that got us into this mess used by the same clowns.
Volcker would send the LaRouche people into a tizzy.
Hmmm, I wonder why Gov. Granholm's name isn't in the running...
After all look what an amazing job she's done for Michigan...
Granholm is at least as good a liar as Obama...
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